Le 29 juin dernier, la Banque des Règlements Internationaux (BRI) a publié son 79ème rapport annuel. A cette occasion, elle revient sur la période actuelle et ses potentiels effets à long terme en particulier via le risque d’inflation.
The crisis had both macroeconomic and microeconomic causes: large global imbalances; a protracted period of low real interest rates; distorted incentives; and an underappreciation of risk. There were market failures, and regulation failed to prevent the build-up of excessive leverage.
In September and October 2008, the financial crisis intensified, forcing monetary, fiscal and regulatory authorities both to expand their fight to restore the health of the financial system and to counter the threats to the real economy. The scale and scope of the monetary and fiscal policy measures are unprecedented.
Nevertheless, the balance sheets of many financial institutions have still not been repaired. Further steps are needed to address this. A healthy financial system is a precondition for the effectiveness of expansionary policies and for stable long-run real growth. It is â€œessential that authorities â€¦ repair the financial systemâ€, notes the Annual Report, and â€œpersevere until the job is doneâ€. And they should resist financial protectionism, sometimes an unintended consequence of national support for the financial sector, as this would moderate growth and development.
The BIS Annual Report argues that financial instruments, markets and institutions all require reform if a truly robust system is to emerge. For instruments, it means a mechanism that rates their safety, limits their availability and provides warnings about their suitability and risks. For markets, it means encouraging trading and clearing through central counterparties and exchanges. For institutions, it means the comprehensive application of enhanced prudential standards that integrate a system-wide perspective. Above all, regulators and supervisors must adopt a macroprudential orientation. By focusing on the stability of the system as a whole, as much as on the viability of individual institutions, it would reduce the probability of joint failures that arise from common exposures and at the same time moderate the procyclicality inherent in the financial system. Speaking today, BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana stressed that â€œthere are several projects under way to make the macroprudential approach operational, building on the new-found international consensus supporting it. The BIS is actively involved in all of these initiativesâ€.
BIS Annual Report: Rescue, recovery, reform â€“ the narrow path ahead
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